Coronavirus Impact on Semiconductor Industry Sales

Coronavirus Semiconductor Watch: IC $ sales rebounded last week above 5-year TMA levels as chip makers sought to capitalize on lower chip prices and avoid being unprepared to address end-market demand when this issue ends. IC sales were higher than in past pandemics at week+3 after a WHO global emergency announcement. COVID-19’s impact for week+3 was similar to the Ebola Virus outbreak, which also had a strong week+3 rise and about a week behind that of the Sendai earthquake. IC unit volumes also rebounded in week+3, showing even more strength than last week. This is reflecting a similar business optimism among IC buyers to that of semiconductor equipment.

Overall, there was not an infection of Semiconductor market sales in week+3, which jumped above 2019 levels for the same week a year ago. The price decline did abate last week, which is a very positive sign that the market remains healthy. While, semiconductor demand remains weak due to the Coronavirus, VLSIresearch’s Semiconductor Supply-Demand index did jump from Loose to Balanced, as the Coronavirus continued to disrupt the supply chain in a way that’s causing IC buyers to stock up on chips. DRAM and NAND Supply-Demand conditions jumped to Tight, as chip buyers worried the impact of COVID-19 in South Korea could delay shipments from Samsung and SK Hynix, who also have wafer fab production centers in China as well.  IMDs moved up to Balanced. Foundry & OSAT remained unchanged at Saturated while Analog & Power stayed Balanced. Last week, Logic and Auto nowcast for the 1st quarter of 2020 held with little change. DRAM and Analog slipped slightly, while NAND improved by more than 4 points.

As for semiconductor manufacturing equipment, the Coronavirus has had no substantial impact on overall Wafer Fab Equipment shipments in 1Q20. 2Q20 is likely to be lower than VLSIresearch forecasted in January 2020. Test and Assembly are expected to have lower shipments. The semiconductor manufacturing equipment supply chain is stressed because of lower component availability from China.

Chipmakers have not slowed wafer starts or expansions plans so far, according to VLSIresearch’s surveys of the market last week. Logic producers in particular are locked in the EUV implementation race so spending for them remains strategic. Memory spending is more suspect and could come up short this year if the virus disruption persists because memory inventories are already above normal levels. For more detail and weekly updates on the subject, please access VLSIresearch’s reports, including The Chip Insider: Equipment and Emerging Markets, The Chip Insider: Strategy and Tactics, and Semiconductor Industry Analytics.

Market Forecast And Future Potential Of The Semiconductor Industry

Semiconductors are ubiquitous in electronic devices, microprocessor chips, transistors, diodes and integrated circuits. Anything that is computerized or uses radio waves needs semiconductors. A majority of these semiconductor chips and transistors are made of silicon. This is why you hear the terms ‘Silicon Valley’ and silicon economy so often. Silicon and semiconductors are at the heart of our digital economy. The semiconductor market is set for further growth fueled by a demand wave of new technology trends such as artificial intelligence.

It is predicted that demand for chips will rise in response to the growing use of AI across sectors. Each decade has witnessed a fresh rise in demand in the semiconductor industry led by disruptive tech trends. From 1997-2007 it was the rise in the use of personal computers that boosted the production of central processing units ,memory chips etc.  At the same time, the proliferation of the Internet drove the sales for Ethernet equipment, ASICs and network processors and the smartphone revolution led to a demand surge for mobile processors. The next wave of demand was led by cloud computing that needed significant server CPUs and storage. 

Market pundits have predicted that artificial intelligence is the new catalyst for growth that will drive another demand cycle for the semiconductor sector. Industry exports believe and predict that the AI-related semiconductor market is expected to grow from US6$bn to more than US$30bn by 2022 owing to AI-driven use cases and wider adoption of machine learning technology. This is at a compound annual growth rate of nearly 50%.

There are seven component types that make up the semiconductor market share. These include memory, logic, microcomponent, analog, optoelectronic, discrete and sensor. Memory products typically command the largest share of revenues. The next largest chunk of the overall pie is driven by sale of logic and microcomponent chips.

There is high demand for chips as a direct result of the growing use of AI globally. A large part of this requirement is stemming from the automotive and industrial markets, which are two of the most rapidly growing sectors.

The following are some of the new emerging opportunities for the semiconductor market:

• Autonomous vehicles
• 5G technologies
• Consumer electronics
• Servers and storage devices

While the market for personal computers will decline through the next decade, the decline will be offset by growth in other tech like the Internet of Things, Machine Learning (ML) and the use of AI in servers and data centers.

Semiconductor Market Forecast 2020

Having said that, the semiconductor market is bound to be impacted by COVID-19 much like other sectors. The visibility for chipmakers and equipment suppliers is limited because of ongoing supply chain issues and end-demand concerns. It is believed that the near-term and mid-term impact of the pandemic will be significant, possibly leading to a downside pressure for the chip industry in 2020.

Conclusion

The wider outlook for the future of the semiconductor industry seems to be positive because of new disruptive technology like AI and its broad application across sectors. The impact of COVID-19 may cause a slowdown in the nearer term.

Chip Insider in Semiconductor Industry

Semiconductor Industry is a huge collection of companies that are engaged in the design and fabrication of semiconductor devices. It was formed in around 1960. Since then, it has grown to be a $412.2 billion industry. The global semiconductor industry is governed by the United States, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, China, Israel, European Union, Malaysia, and Singapore.

The Chip Insider

Chip Insider is a trusted advisor for manufacturing semiconductor. It provides strategic and tactical insights with access to VLSIresearch’s analysts. It is a trusted advisor to senior executives in the semiconductor industry. The Chip Insider generates email reports on current issues, trends, strategies and tactics adopted by the industry.

It focuses on the most essential perspectives that are edgy and blunt on industry issues. It provides the following analysis for detailed discussion and advisory: -

1. Time for personalized inquiries;
2. Leadership, strategies and tactics;
3. Marketing communications and financial relationships support
4. Brainstorming and bullet-proofing your work.

Chip Insider is a trusted advisor for critical decisions. It provides weekly business updates through Weather Reports, continuous and current reviews of industry issues through Strategies and Tactics, analysis on equipment and business trends through Equipment and Emerging Markets.

The CMRS platform of VLSI in Modular Format Structure is as follows: -

• Chip Insider provides strategic and tactical insights along with the analysts of VLSIresearch.
• TCI Graphics brings weekly visualization to the semiconductor supply chain in KPI trends
• The Forecast Pro is a baseline data for semiconductor ecosystem. It is a research platform that conducts weather reports and forecast databases with critical datasets for semiconductors, designs and reticles, and silicon packaging along with semiconductor inventories, capacity and supply-demand analysis.
• The Semiconductor Equipment Databases is all about the semiconductor market. It is a platform for research which covers market shares along with annual and quarterly forecasts for the segments along with equipment demand by device type and region.

Summary

The semiconductor industry had phenomenal growth over the past 25 years. It is a $150 billion-dollar industry and because of its stupendous growth, it also faces environmental issues. Chip Insider creates weekly weather reports, predictions, advisories and analysis for the important decisions in the semiconductor industry.